In over forty years of roasting, brewing, and sipping my way through the world of coffee, I’ve ridden the highs and lows. But this—this is unprecedented.

The C market has crossed $4 USD per pound. This isn’t a blip on the chart it’s a flashing red light and a foghorn blast. A signal that the system, long under strain, might finally be recalibrating.

Why the Surge?

This price spike isn’t random. It’s the result of a perfect storm:

• Brazil, the linchpin of arabica supply, was battered by drought and frost, hammering yields.

• Vietnam, king of robusta, has seesawed from drought to floods — all thanks to climate change, which is now less a spectre and more a daily disruptor.

• On top of that, rising fuel costs, labour shortages, and snarled logistics have made coffee more expensive and unpredictable to move than ever before.

• And then there’s speculation — traders banking on scarcity have added fuel to the fire.

Is $4 the New Normal?

Once upon a time, $2 was the healthy line in the sand a fair price for sustainability at origin. Today, that number is a relic. With rising costs across the board, $4 might be the new fair. Not high — just honest.

It reflects the real cost of producing coffee with care:

• Wages that support families

• Farming practices that respect the land

• And innovations that build resilience

Still, price alone doesn’t buy security. What producers need is predictability. A stable market above $3 might just provide the foundation this industry sorely needs.

A Boon for Speciality — Or a Bypass?

Here lies the fork in the road. Higher prices can empower producers to pursue excellence better processing, better practices, better coffee. But when even commodity coffee pays well, some may chase volume over quality. The result? A growing divide between bulk and brilliance.

What Can We Do?

Simple. We show up.

Speciality buyers and roasters must commit. Pay premiums that reward effort and nuance. Build relationships that endure beyond a season. And educate customers — that cup in their hand costs more because it’s worth more.

What’s Next?

If $3+ pricing sticks, we could be entering a golden era of ethical, sustainable coffee. But only if we treat this shift not as an anomaly, but as long-overdue correction.

After all, the real question isn’t “Is coffee too expensive?” It’s “Have we been paying too little for too long?”